Determination of respiratory syncytial virus epidemic seasons by using 95% confidence interval of positivity rates, 2011–2021, Germany
Wei Cai, Ralf Dürrwald, Barbara Biere, Brunhilde Schweiger, Walter Haas, Thorsten Wolff, Silke Buda, Janine Reiche
Abstract
Based on our national outpatient sentinel surveillance, we have developed a novel approach to determine respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemic seasons in Germany by using RSV positivity rate and its lower limit of 95% confidence interval. This method was evaluated retrospectively on nine RSV seasons, and it is also well-suited to describe off-season circulation of RSV in near real time as observed for seasons 2020/21 and 2021/22 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prospective application is of crucial importance to enable timely actions for health service delivery and prevention.
Topics & Concepts
Confidence intervalPandemicMedicineCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)VirologyOutpatient visitsRespiratory systemVirusPediatricsHealth careInternal medicineEconomicsInfectious disease (medical specialty)DiseaseEconomic growthRespiratory viral infections researchPneumonia and Respiratory InfectionsEmergency and Acute Care Studies