Costs and benefits of highly ambitious energy transition pathways for Europe
Dmitrii Bogdanov, Manish Ram, Rasul Satymov, Gabriel Lopez, Theophilus Nii Odai Mensah, Kristina Sadovskaia, Christian Breyer
Abstract
Climate change and energy crises push Europe to accelerate the energy-industry transition towards higher shares of renewable energy and a more efficient integrated electricity-based energy-industry system. The study examines transition scenarios ranging from carbon neutrality reached in 2050 to highest ambitions with 100% renewable electricity supply reached by 2030 and an overall carbon-neutral energy-industry system by 2035. The fastest transition coincidences with higher cost, but still with an acceptable tolerance. Reaching carbon neutrality by 2040 allows for a substantial reduction in CO 2 emissions and energy costs are lower compared to the fastest transition. Allowing e-fuel imports substantially reduces the energy cost in Europe compared to complete energy sovereignty, with an optimal import share at only 7% of primary energy demand. Reaching an affordable energy supply requires close cooperation of European countries to exploit the best renewable resources and all sources of energy system flexibility to enable a low-cost energy supply.