Climate change and wind energy potential in South America
A. Martinez, Gregório Iglesias
Abstract
Wind energy is crucial in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and combating global warming. However, the economic viability of wind energy projects is tied to wind resources, which may be affected by climate change. The objective of this work is to investigate the evolution of wind energy resources in South America using the most up-to-date climate-change scenarios: the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Three scenarios are considered, corresponding to low, medium and high emissions pathways. A multi-model ensemble is constructed with Global Climate Models selected for their accuracy in the study region in a historical period. Results indicate that east of the Andes, in Brazil, Paraguay and Venezuela, substantial increases in average wind power density are expected, surpassing 100 % in certain areas and in the most pessimistic scenario (the fossil-fuelled development pathway). By contrast, significant reductions (up to ~50 %) are projected for certain areas west of the Andes: South Chile, Peru and the waters off West Colombia. South Chile has the windiest climate in the continent, which makes this reduction due to climate change all the more important. Even under the low-emissions scenario, the projected evolution in wind resources is relevant, which highlights the necessity of considering climate change in wind energy planning.