Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics
Salihu S. Musa, Shi Zhao, Nafiu Hussaini, Zian Zhuang, Yushan Wu, Abdurrahman Abdulhamid, Maggie Haitian Wang, Daihai He
Abstract
This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R0) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R0 is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Estimation2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Basic reproduction numberEpidemiologyStatisticsGeographyDemographyMathematicsMedicineEnvironmental healthVirologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)PopulationOutbreakEngineeringDiseaseSociologySystems engineeringInternal medicinePathologyCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsCOVID-19 impact on air quality