Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents
Annegret H. Thieken, Philip Bubeck, Anna Heidenreich, Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Lisa Dillenardt, Antje Otto
Abstract
Abstract. In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in Western Europe and 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP) questioning their flood forecasting, warning and response system (FFWRS). Data from an online survey (n = 1315) reveal that 35 % of the respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Of those who were warned 85 % did not expect a very severe flooding and 46 % did not know what to do. Regression analysis reveals that this knowledge is influenced by gender and flood experience, but also by the contents and the source of the warning message. The results are complemented by analyses of media reports and official warnings that show shortcomings in providing adequate recommendations to people at risk. Dissemination of warnings, communication of the expected flood magnitude and adequate responses are seen as entry points for improving the FFWRS in Germany.