Enhancing carbon sinks in China using a spatially-optimized forestation strategy
Yanli Dong, Zhen Yu, Thomas Pugh, Evgenios Agathokleous, Fangmin Zhang, S. Sitch, Weibin You, Wangya Han, Stefan Olin, Shirong Liu, Guoyi Zhou, Pedro Cabral, Pengsen Sun
Abstract
China plans expanding 49.5 million hectares of new forests by 2050 to strengthen carbon sequestration. However, estimates of the carbon benefits from this expansion rarely consider the effect of ‘forest edge’, where tree mortality increases under intensified stress from wind, drought, pests, and fire. Here we show that proximity to forest edges substantially reduces biomass carbon storage, and develop a spatial optimization strategy that prioritizes planting in areas that minimize edge effects. Our projections show that forestation optimized for edge effects results in a 51% increase in carbon gain (986 ± 22 Tg by 2060), with approximately half of the total gain driven by reduced edge effects. These findings demonstrate that ignoring edge effects can significantly overestimate carbon sink potential and highlight spatially optimized forestation as a pathway to maximize climate mitigation and ecological benefits. The study shows forests near edges store less carbon due to higher environmental stress. Spatial optimization of new forest plantations could boost carbon storage by 986 Tg by 2060, with 53% of the gain from reducing edge effects.