Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
Mark Jit, Thibaut Jombart, Emily Nightingale, Akira Endo, Sam Abbott, W. John Edmunds
Abstract
An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000-173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220-319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000-797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)PandemicMedicineCoronavirusCoronavirus InfectionsBetacoronavirusVirologyDiseaseInfectious disease (medical specialty)Internal medicineOutbreakCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Clinical Research StudiesCOVID-19 and healthcare impacts