Model Estimates of Global and Regional Climate Changes in the Holocene
И. И. Мохов, А. В. Елисеев, V. V. Gur’yanov
Abstract
Abstract On the basis of simulations using a global climate model, the global and regional climate changes in the Holocene are estimated. According to our results, the average contemporary level of global near-surface temperature in recent decades exceeded the respective values during the last 10 kyr, including the period of the Holocene optimum (Middle Holocene, about 6 kyr B.P.). However, modern temperature regimes in particular regions (e.g., Europe) may be below the maximum warming level of the Middle Holocene. Global and regional climate changes and variations in the carbon cycle characteristics over the last century (based on model calculations, with the anthropogenic effect being taken into account) considerably differ from the variations in the preceding centuries and millennia, when natural impacts on the climate system played the key role.