Soil carbon debt from land use change in Brazil
João M. Villela, Júnior Melo Damian, D. C. GONÇALVES, Luis G. Barioni, Maurício R. Cherubin, Carlos E. P. Cerri
Abstract
Carbon farming is a fundamental strategy for mitigating climate change. Brazil, with 276 million hectares of agricultural land, has strong potential to lead this agenda, but uncertainty about soil carbon (C) debt hinders understanding of its true mitigation capacity. Here, we estimate the soil carbon gap, the difference between soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks under native vegetation and agricultural land across Brazil's six biomes, which represents the theoretical potential for soil recarbonization. A meta-analysis using a comprehensive national SOC database (4,290 records, 0-30 cm) is used to estimate an overall carbon debt of 1.40 ± 0.1 Pg C. The results show that sustainable practices such as crop rotation, intercropping, no-tillage, and integrated agricultural systems enhance SOC recovery. These findings highlight Brazil's capacity to drive global emissions mitigation, guide low-carbon policies, and position the country as a key actor in the emerging global carbon market.