Exploring the Gap Between Excess Mortality and COVID-19 Deaths in 67 Countries
Francesco Sanmarchi, Davide Golinelli, Jacopo Lenzi, Francesco Esposito, Angelo Capodici, Chiara Reno, Dino Gibertoni
Abstract
Most of the 67 countries experienced an increase in mortality during 2020 (Table ). Among countries with increased mortality (ie, those located above 0 on the y-axis in the Figure ), a small number appeared under the identity line, showing lower-than-expected mortality after subtracting COVID-19 deaths. Countries located above the identity line can be visually classified into 2 groups: 1 with several Latin American and East European countries, which exhibit a large gap between EM and CCM (eg, Mexico, 212 excess deaths vs 96 COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population); the other, more heterogeneous group showed a moderate EM beyond CCM (eg, Greece, 57 excess deaths vs 45 COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population). Countries with negative EM also had very low CCM and