Divergent climate impacts on <scp> C ₃ </scp> versus <scp> C ₄ </scp> grasses imply widespread 21st century shifts in grassland functional composition

Abstract

Abstract Aim Grasslands cover a third of Earth's landmass and provide critical ecosystem services. Anticipating how perennial C 3 (cool‐season) and C 4 (warm‐season) grasses respond to climate change will be key to predicting future composition and functioning of grasslands. Here, we evaluate environmental drivers of C 3 and C 4 perennial distributions and assess how C 3 and C 4 grass distributions shift in response to future climate change. Location Western United States. Methods We developed integrated species distribution models to identify climate and soil drivers of relative abundance of C 3 and C 4 perennial grasses. We then created projections of species abundances under future climate and evaluated when and where projected shifts in relative abundance were robust across climate models. Results Historically, C 3 grasses occupied areas with lower temperature and more variable precipitation regimes, while C 4 grasses occupied areas of higher temperature, greater temperature variability and greater warm‐season precipitation. C 4 species also occupied narrower soil texture niches. In response to future climate change, C 3 grass abundance declined across 74% of areas, while C 4 abundance increased across 66% of areas. C 3 grasses expanded in mid‐ to higher‐latitude areas with increasing temperature and decreasing seasonality of precipitation. In contrast, C 4 grasses increased in higher‐latitude regions, but declined in lower‐latitude, dryer regions. Results were surprisingly robust across climate scenarios, suggesting high confidence in the direction of these future changes. Main Conclusions Findings imply C 3 and C 4 perennial grasses will have highly divergent responses to climate change that may result in grassland functional compositional changes. Increasing temperatures and precipitation variability may favour some C 4 grasses, but C 4 habitat expansion may be constrained by soil conditions in western USA. Results provide actionable insights for anticipating the impacts of climate change on grass‐dominated and co‐dominated ecosystems and improving large‐scale conservation and restoration efforts.

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