Canadian oil sands industry GHG emissions intensity and mitigation potential of some key emerging technologies towards fulfilling its 2050 net-zero commitment
Kyle McGaughy, Tinu Ravi Abraham, Joule Bergerson, Mohammad S. Masnadi
Abstract
• Canadian oil sands industry current and future carbon footprints are assessed. • Extractive emerging technologies lower upstream emissions from 78 to 57 kgCO 2 eq/bbl. • New upgrading technologies lower upstream emissions by an additional 20 kgCO 2 eq/bbl. • The studied emerging technologies can reduce total emissions by 16 % till 2050. • ∼25–185 Mt CO 2 eq estimated gap to reach net zero in upstream GHG emissions by 2050. Oil sands industry have pledged to make its onsite operations carbon neutral by 2050. First, the status of oil sands’ well-to-wheel GHG emissions of transportation fuels was evaluated by covering ∼75 % of bitumen production in 2018/2019 using open-source bottom-up life-cycle assessment tools, public/commercial data, and by unprecedented engagement of 11 oil sands stakeholders, and provincial/national research agencies. Next, several emerging oil sands technologies and their GHG emissions mitigation potential are explored, with extractive emerging technologies to lower upstream GHG intensities from 78 to 57 kgCO 2 eq/bbl while new upgrading technologies lower by an additional 20 kgCO 2 eq/bbl. The innovative technologies and other advancements (e.g., electricity co-generation, CCS) contributions on annual GHG emissions until 2050 are quantified and broader implications are discussed. The estimated cumulative emissions reduction capacity across the industry until 2050 is ∼700 MMt CO 2 eq (16 % reduction) relative to a business-as-usual scenario which is far from the industry 2050 commitment.