Nomogram development and validation to predict Ki-67 expression of hepatocellular carcinoma derived from Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI combined with T1 mapping
Ziwei Liu, Shaomin Yang, Xinjie Chen, Chun Luo, Jieying Feng, Haixiong Chen, Fusheng Ouyang, Rong Zhang, Xiaohong Li, Wei Liu, Baoliang Guo, Qiugen Hu
Abstract
Objective: As an important biomarker to reflect tumor cell proliferation and tumor aggressiveness, Ki-67 is closely related to the high early recurrence rate and poor prognosis, and pretreatment evaluation of Ki-67 expression possibly provides a more accurate prognosis assessment and more better treatment plan. We aimed to develop a nomogram based on gadolinium ethoxybenzyl diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (Gd-EOB-DTPA)-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) combined with T1 mapping to predict Ki-67 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: This two-center study retrospectively enrolled 148 consecutive patients who underwent preoperative Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI T1 mapping and surgically confirmed HCC from July 2019 to December 2020. The correlation between quantitative parameters from T1 mapping, ADC, and Ki-67 was explored. Three cohorts were constructed: a training cohort (n = 73) and an internal validation cohort (n = 31) from Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University, and an external validation cohort (n = 44) from the Sixth Affiliated Hospital, South China University of Technology. The clinical variables and MRI qualitative and quantitative parameters associational with Ki-67 expression were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A nomogram was developed based on these associated with Ki-67 expression in the training cohort and validated in the internal and external validation cohorts. Results: < 0.001). Predictors of Ki-67 expression included in the nomogram were peritumoral enhancement, peritumoral hypointensity, T1rt-20min, and tumor margin, while arterial phase hyperenhancement (APHE) was not a significant predictor even included in the regression model. The nomograms achieved good concordance indices in predicting Ki-67 expression in the training and two validation cohorts (0.919, 0.925, 0.850), respectively. Conclusions: T1rt-Pre and T1rt-20min had a strong positive correlation with the Ki-67 expression in HCC, and Gd-EOB-DTPA enhanced MRI combined with T1 mapping-based nomogram effectively predicts high Ki-67 expression in HCC.