A novel wastewater-based epidemiology indexing method predicts SARS-CoV-2 disease prevalence across treatment facilities in metropolitan and regional populations
Richard G. Melvin, Emily N. Hendrickson, Nabiha Chaudhry, Onimitein Georgewill, Rebecca Freese, Timothy W. Schacker, Glenn Simmons
Abstract
Abstract There is a need for wastewater based epidemiological (WBE) methods that integrate multiple, variously sized surveillance sites across geographic areas. We developed a novel indexing method, Melvin’s Index, that provides a normalized and standardized metric of wastewater pathogen load for qPCR assays that is resilient to surveillance site variation. To demonstrate the utility of Melvin’s Index, we used qRT-PCR to measure SARS-CoV-2 genomic RNA levels in influent wastewater from 19 municipal wastewater treatment facilities (WWTF’s) of varying sizes and served populations across the state of Minnesota during the Summer of 2020. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected at each WWTF during the 20-week sampling period at a mean concentration of 8.5 × 10 4 genome copies/L (range 3.2 × 10 2 –1.2 × 10 9 genome copies/L). Lag analysis of trends in Melvin’s Index values and clinical COVID-19 cases showed that increases in indexed wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels precede new clinical cases by 15–17 days at the statewide level and by up to 25 days at the regional/county level. Melvin’s Index is a reliable WBE method and can be applied to both WWTFs that serve a wide range of population sizes and to large regions that are served by multiple WWTFs.