Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France
Laura Di Domenico, C Sabbatini, Giulia Pullano, D Lévy-Brühl, Vittoria Colizza
Abstract
Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to plateau by decreasing transmission of the historical strains while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalisations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.
Topics & Concepts
CurfewSocial distanceCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Transmission (telecommunications)VirologyVaccination2019-20 coronavirus outbreakPandemicDemographyMedicineGeographyOutbreakSociologyInternal medicineTelecommunicationsComputer scienceDiseaseInfectious disease (medical specialty)COVID-19 epidemiological studiesSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchCOVID-19 Clinical Research Studies