Risk Factors for Liver Decompensation and HCC in HCV-Cirrhotic Patients after DAAs: A Multicenter Prospective Study
Filomena Morisco, Alessandro Federico, Massimo Marignani, Mariarita Cannavò, Giuseppina Pontillo, Maria Guarino, Marcello Dallio, Paola Begini, R. Benigno, Flavia Lombardo, Tommaso Stroffolini
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prospective studies on predictors of liver-related events in cirrhotic subjects achieving SVR after DAAs are lacking. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled HCV cirrhotic patients in four Italian centers between November 2015 and October 2017. SVR and no-SVR cases were compared according to the presence or absence of liver-related events during a 24-month follow-up. Independent predictors of liver-related events were evaluated by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: < 0.03). The incidence rate x 100 p/y was 1.6 for HCC, 1.7 for any liver decompensation, and 0.5 for hepatic death. Baseline liver stiffness (LSM) ≥ 20 kPa (HR 4.0; 95% CI 1.1-14.1) and genotype different from 1 (HR 7.5; 95% CI 2.1-27.3) were both independent predictors of liver decompensation. Baseline LSM > 20 KPa (HR 7.2; 95% CI 1.9-26.7) was the sole independent predictor of HCC. A decrease in liver stiffness (Delta LSM) by at least 20% at the end of follow-up was not associated with a decreased risk of liver-related events. CONCLUSION: Baseline LSM ≥ 20 kPa identifies HCV cirrhotic subjects at higher risk of liver-related events after SVR.