Evaluating ecosystem services in urban salt marshes: Assessing vulnerability to sea-level rise and implications for coastal management
Jahson B. Alemu, Conor Ofsthun, Grace Medley, Alison Bowden, Alex Cammett, Emma Gildesgame, Samuel E. Muñoz, Aron Stubbins, A. Randall Hughes
Abstract
This study presents a spatio-temporal framework that integrates ecosystem services into ecological risk assessment to evaluate the ecosystem service vulnerability of urban salt marshes to sea-level rise. The model was tested at Belle Isle Marsh to quantify and qualify the evolving capacity of urban marshes to continue supplying ecosystem services to an increasing urban populace to the end of the century with focus on carbon storage, nitrogen storage, fish nursery, and Saltmarsh Sparrow viewing. We project that sea-level rise will drive dynamic trade-offs between habitats and ecosystem services over space and time. Ultimately, habitat fragmentation and coversion to open ocean will severely impair carbon storage and wildlife viewing services, while also enhancing short-term fish nursery and nitrogen storage services. This approach offers nuanced understanding of where, when, and how services may interact under future conditions, and enables proactive planning and adaptation to emerging challenges. • Integrated ecosystem services into ecological risk assessment framework. • High marsh habitats projected to decline over 90% by 2100 due to SLR. • Short-term gains in fish nursery services amid habitat conversion trends. • Identified spatial and temporal variability in ecosystem service provision. • Call for restoration strategies to enhance marsh resilience against SLR.