Estimation of Daily Reproduction Numbers during the COVID-19 Outbreak
Jacques Demongeot, Kayode Oshinubi, Mustapha Rachdi, Hervé Seligmann, Florence Thuderoz, Jules Waku
Abstract
(1) Background: The estimation of daily reproduction numbers throughout the contagiousness period is rarely considered, and only their sum R0 is calculated to quantify the contagiousness level of an infectious disease. (2) Methods: We provide the equation of the discrete dynamics of the epidemic’s growth and obtain an estimation of the daily reproduction numbers by using a deconvolution technique on a series of new COVID-19 cases. (3) Results: We provide both simulation results and estimations for several countries and waves of the COVID-19 outbreak. (4) Discussion: We discuss the role of noise on the stability of the epidemic’s dynamics. (5) Conclusions: We consider the possibility of improving the estimation of the distribution of daily reproduction numbers during the contagiousness period by taking into account the heterogeneity due to several host age classes.