Association between temperature variability and global meningitis incidence
Junjun Chen, Zhihua Jiao, Zhisheng Liang, Junxiong Ma, Ming Xu, Shyam Biswal, Murugappan Ramanathan, Shengzhi Sun, Zhenyu Zhang
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Meningitis can cause devastating epidemics and is susceptible to climate change. It is unclear how temperature variability, an indicator of climate change, is associated with meningitis incidence. METHODS: We used global meningitis incidence data along with meteorological and demographic data over 1990-2019 to identify the association between temperature variability and meningitis. We also employed future (2020-2100) climate data to predict meningitis incidence under different emission levels (SSPs: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). RESULTS: We found that the mean temperature variability increased by almost 3 folds in the past 30 years. The largest changes occurred in Australasia, Tropical Latin America, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. With a logarithmic unit increase in temperature variability, the overall global meningitis risk increases by 4.8 %. Australasia, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and High-income North America are the most at-risk regions. Higher statistical differences were identified in males, children, and the elderly population. Compared to high-emission (SSP585) scenario, we predicted a median reduction of 85.8 % in meningitis incidence globally under the low-emission (SSP126) climate change scenario by 2100. CONCLUSION: Our study provides evidence for temperature variability being in association with meningitis incidence, which suggests that global actions are urgently needed to address climate change and to prevent meningitis occurrence.