Non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical model for the El Niño southern oscillation
L. T. Giorgini, Woosok Moon, Ningmeng Chen, J. S. Wettlaufer
Abstract
A nonautonomous stochastic dynamical model approach is developed to describe the seasonal to interannual variability of the El Nio southern oscillation (ENSO). We determine the model coefficients by systematic statistical estimations using partial observations involving only sea surface temperature data. Our approach reproduces the observed seasonal phase locking and its uncertainty, as well as the highly non-Gaussian statistics of ENSO. Finally, we recover the intermittent time series of the hidden processes, including the thermocline depth and the wind bursts.
Topics & Concepts
ThermoclineGaussianStatistical physicsOscillation (cell signaling)ClimatologyEl Niño Southern OscillationSea surface temperatureMeteorologyPhysicsGeologyQuantum mechanicsBiologyGeneticsClimate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsTropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research