Good practices for surplus production models
Alexandros Kokkalis, Casper Willestofte Berg, Maia Kapur, Henning Winker, N.S. Jacobsen, Marc H Taylor, Momoko Ichinokawa, Mitsuyo Miyagawa, Wendell Medeiros‐Leal, J. Rasmus Nielsen, Tobias Mildenberger
Abstract
Surplus production models (SPMs) have a long history in fisheries ecology and are important for the assessment and management of marine species and stocks. However, the implementation, application, and usage of these models vary across regions and case studies. Good practice guidelines can streamline modelling workflows, inform the acceptance or rejection of an assessment, and facilitate the derivation of management advice from accepted assessments. This paper discusses current practices in the application of SPMs and proposes good practice guidelines for their use in stock assessment. We complement our recommendations with results from a simulation study examining the performance of an age-based operating model and a SPM assessment model under 60 scenarios with various assumptions regarding data quantity, quality, and model priors. We provide specific good practice guidelines for two widely used state-space SPMs: SPiCT and JABBA. Finally, we discuss current limitations and suggest avenues for future developments for SPMs.