Development and validation of a parametric tropical cyclone wave height prediction model
Guisela Grossmann-Matheson, Ian R. Young, Jose-Henrique Alves, Alberto Meucci
Abstract
A parametric model for computationally efficient wave height estimation within tropical cyclone conditions is developed. An updated wind vortex model is used to force a moving grid version of the WAVEWATCH III spectral model, to generate a large synthetic tropical cyclone wave field database (approximately 400 simulations). This extensive database is used to develop the parametric model which accounts for the key variables defining the magnitude and spatial distribution of waves within tropical cyclones. The model uses JONSWAP-type scaling and accounts for the effects of the moving vortex of the tropical cyclone in defining the wave field. A total of 28 buoy observations together with satellite altimeters measurements during the passage of 17 tropical cyclones (hurricanes) in the North Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico were used to validate the predicted wave heights. The resulting model is computationally efficient, making it ideal for engineering applications which require simulation of numerous tropical cyclone cases. Despite some limitations, it is a useful tool for the prediction of wave heights under extreme tropical cyclone forcing.