The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China
Biao Tang, Fan Xia, Sanyi Tang, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Qian Li, Xiaodan Sun, Juhua Liang, Yanni Xiao, Jianhong Wu
Abstract
Objectives: Since January 23, 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemic have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved, as well. However, the daily reported cases remaining at a high level make the epidemic trend prediction difficult. Methods: Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemic's process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including the cumulative number of reported, deceased, quarantined and suspected cases.