Effects of social-distancing on infectious disease dynamics: an evolutionary game theory and economic perspective
Maia Martcheva, Necibe Tuncer, Calistus N. Ngonghala
Abstract
We propose two models inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic: a coupled disease-human behaviour (or disease-game theoretic), and a coupled disease-human behaviour-economic model, both of which account for the impact of social-distancing on disease control and economic growth. The models exhibit rich dynamical behaviour including multistable equilibria, a backward bifurcation, and sustained bounded periodic oscillations. Analyses of the first model suggests that the disease can be eliminated if everybody practices full social-distancing, but the most likely outcome is some level of disease coupled with some level of social-distancing. The same outcome is observed with the second model when the economy is weaker than the social norms to follow health directives. However, if the economy is stronger, it can support some level of social-distancing that can lead to disease elimination.