Visit-to-visit variability in triglyceride-glucose index and diabetes: A 9-year prospective study in the Kailuan Study
Xianxuan Wang, Yanjuan Chen, Yanjuan Chen, Zegui Huang, Zefeng Cai, Xinran Yu, Zekai Chen, Linyao Li, Guanzhi Chen, Kuangyi Wu, Huancong Zheng, Shouling Wu, Youren Chen, Youren Chen
Abstract
Instruction/Aims It is unknown whether variability in the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG-index) is associated with the risk of diabetes. Here, we sought to characterize the relationship between TyG-index variability and incident diabetes. Methods We performed a prospective study of 48,013 participants in the Kailuan Study who did not have diabetes. The TyG-index was calculated as ln [triglyceride (TG, mg/dL) concentration × fasting blood glucose concentration (FBG, mg/dL)/2]. The TyG-index variability was assessed using the standard deviation (SD) of three TyG-index values that were calculated during 2006/07, 2008/09, and 2010/11. We used the Cox proportional hazard models to analyze the effect of TyG-index variability on incident diabetes. Results A total of 4,055 participants were newly diagnosed with diabetes during the study period of 8.95 years (95% confidence interval (CI) 8.48–9.29 years). After adjustment for confounding factors, participants in the highest and second-highest quartiles had significantly higher risks of new-onset diabetes versus the lowest quartile, with hazard ratios (95% CIs) of 1.18 (1.08–1.29) and 1.13 (1.03–1.24), respectively ( P trend< 0.05). These higher risks remained after further adjustment for the baseline TyG-index. Conclusions A substantial fluctuation in TyG-index is associated with a higher risk of diabetes in the Chinese population, implying that it is important to maintain a normal and consistent TyG-index.