Tropical cyclone motion in a changing climate
Gan Zhang, Hiroyuki Murakami, Thomas R. Knutson, Ryo Mizuta, Kohei Yoshida
Abstract
). Using large-ensemble simulations that directly simulate TC activity, we show that future anthropogenic warming can lead to a robust slowing of TC motion, particularly in the midlatitudes. The slowdown there is related to a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, which has been projected by various climate models. Although the model's simulation of historical TC motion trends suggests that the attribution of the observed trends of TC motion to anthropogenic forcings remains uncertain, our findings suggest that 21st-century anthropogenic warming could decelerate TC motion near populated midlatitude regions in Asia and North America, potentially compounding future TC-related damages.