Computing the daily reproduction number of COVID-19 by inverting the renewal equation using a variational technique
Luis Álvarez, Miguel Colom, Jean‐David Morel, Jean‐Michel Morel
Abstract
Significance Based on a signal-processing approach, we propose a method to compute the reproduction number R t , the transmission potential of an epidemic over time. R t is estimated by minimizing a functional that enforces: 1) the ability to produce an incidence curve i t corrected of the weekly periodic bias produced by the “weekend effect,” obtained from R t through a renewal equation; and 2) the regularity of R t . A good agreement is found between our R t estimate and the one provided by the currently accepted method, EpiEstim, except that our method predicts R t several days closer to present. We provide the mathematical arguments for this shift.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Basic reproduction numberReproductionMathematicsTransmission (telecommunications)Applied mathematicsStatisticsCombinatoricsComputer scienceDemographyBiologyMedicineTelecommunicationsVirologySociologyDiseaseEcologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)PathologyPopulationOutbreakCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research