Circulating tumour DNA dynamics predict recurrence in stage III melanoma patients receiving neoadjuvant immunotherapy
Wei Yen Chan, Jenny Lee, Ashleigh Stewart, Russell J. Diefenbach, Maria Gonzalez, Alexander M. Menzies, Christian U. Blank, Richard A. Scolyer, Georgina V. Long, Helen Rizos
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant therapy improves recurrence-free survival (RFS) in resectable stage III cutaneous melanoma. However, accurately predicting individual recurrence risk remains a significant challenge. We investigated circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) as a biomarker for recurrence in measurable stage IIIB/C melanoma patients undergoing neoadjuvant immunotherapy. METHODS: Plasma samples were collected pre-neoadjuvant treatment, pre-surgery and/or six weeks post-surgery from 40 patients enrolled in the OpACIN-neo and PRADO clinical trials. Patients received two cycles of ipilimumab (anti-CTLA-4) and nivolumab (anti-PD-1) before surgery. Cell free DNA (cfDNA) underwent unbiased pre-amplification followed by tumour-informed mutation detection using droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) with the Bio-Rad QX600 PCR system. RESULTS: Pre-treatment ctDNA was detectable in 19/40 (48%) patients. Among these, 17/19 (89%) zero-converted within six weeks of surgery and none recurred. Positive ctDNA post-surgery (N = 4), irrespective of pre-treatment ctDNA status, was 100% predictive of recurrence (sensitivity 44%, specificity 100%). Furthermore, ctDNA cleared prior to surgery in 7/9 (78%) patients who did not recur, warranting further investigation into ctDNA-guided surgical management. CONCLUSION: Post-surgery ctDNA positivity and zero-conversion are highly predictive of recurrence, offering a window for personalised modification of adjuvant therapy.