Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health
Leah Costlow, Anna Herforth, Timothy B. Sulser, Nicola Cenacchi, William A. Masters
Abstract
Sufficient food is available in the world for all people to consume sufficient calories, but not healthy diets. This study traces historical and projected changes in global food systems toward alignment with the new Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) used by UN agencies and the World Bank to monitor the cost and affordability of healthy diets worldwide. Using the HDB as a standard to measure adequacy of national, regional and global supply-demand balances, we find substantial but inconsistent progress toward closer alignment with dietary guidelines, with large global shortfalls in fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds, and large disparities among regions in use of animal source foods. Projections show that additional investments aimed at reducing chronic hunger would modestly accelerate improvements in adequacy where shortfalls are greatest, revealing the need for complementary investments to increase access to under-consumed food groups especially in low-income countries. • Sufficient food is available in terms of calories, but not healthy diets. • We compare quantities to Healthy Diet Basket targets used to monitor food access. • Average shortfalls have declined from 44% in the 1960s to 28% in the 2020s. • Given climate change, projections show modest further gains to 2050. • Meeting health needs would require faster innovation to close food supply gaps.