Estimating averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths by COVID-19 vaccination, Italy, January−September 2021
Chiara Sacco, Alberto Mateo‐Urdiales, Daniele Petrone, Matteo Spuri, Massimo Fabiani, Maria Fenicia Vescio, Marco Bressi, Flavia Riccardo, Martina Del Manso, Antonino Bella, Patrizio Pezzotti, on behalf of the Italian Integrated Surveillance of COVID-19 study group
Abstract
We assessed the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy, by estimating numbers of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths between January and September 2021, by age group and geographical macro areas. Timing and speed of vaccination programme implementation varied slightly between geographical areas, particularly for older adults. We estimated that 445,193 (17% of expected; range: 331,059-616,054) cases, 79,152 (32%; range: 53,209-148,756) hospitalisations, 9,839 ICU admissions (29%; range: 6,434-16,276) and 22,067 (38%; range: 13,571-48,026) deaths were prevented by vaccination.