Preoperative serum biomarkers in the prediction of postoperative delirium following abdominal surgery

Abstract

AIM: Elderly patients undergoing abdominal surgery have a high risk of developing postoperative delirium. This study aimed to explore risk factors for postoperative delirium by focusing on preoperative hematologic markers, and to develop a model that would be useful in predicting the occurrence of postoperative delirium. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients aged ≥65 years who underwent elective abdominal surgery under general anesthesia from January 2017 to May 2019. Patients' demographics, hematologic data and intraoperative data were recorded. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-white blood cell ratio and prognostic nutritional index were calculated. We evaluated risk factors of postoperative delirium assessed using a chart-based method for identification of delirium and developed a predictive model using preoperative and intraoperative data. RESULTS: Of 931 eligible patients, 833 with a mean age of 73.9 years were included in the analysis. The rate of incidence of postoperative delirium was 7.3%. Age, duration of surgery and preoperative platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio or platelet-to-white blood cell ratio were statistically significant risk factors. The predictive model, which included age, duration of surgery and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, had the largest area under the curve of 0.77. CONCLUSIONS: Age, duration of surgery and preoperative platelet-to-white blood cell ratio or platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio are associated with the development of postoperative delirium. A predictive model, which includes age, duration of surgery and preoperative platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, is useful in predicting the development of postoperative delirium after elective abdominal surgery. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 20: 1208-1212.

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