Global patterns of submicroscopic Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection: insights from a systematic review and meta-analysis of population surveys
Charles Whittaker, Hannah Slater, Rebecca K. Nash, Teun Bousema, Chris Drakeley, Azra C. Ghani, Lucy Okell
Abstract
BACKGROUND: prevalence by microscopy PCR in the same population. We aimed to explore potential drivers of submicroscopic infection and to identify the locations where submicroscopic infections are most common. METHODS: infection were extracted. Bayesian regression modelling was used to explore determinants of the size of the submicroscopic reservoir including geographical location, seasonality, age, methodology, and current or historical patterns of transmission. FINDINGS: Of 4893 identified studies, we retained 121 after screening and removal of duplicates. 45 studies from a previous systematic review were included giving 166 studies containing 551 cross-sectional survey microscopy and PCR prevalence pairs. Our results show that submicroscopic infections predominate in low-transmission settings across all regions, but also reveal marked geographical variation, with the proportion of infections that are submicroscopic being highest in South American surveys and lowest in west African surveys. Although current transmission levels partly explain these results, we find that historical transmission intensity also represents a crucial determinant of the size of the submicroscopic reservoir, as does the demographic structure of the infected population (with submicroscopic infection more likely to occur in adults than in children) and the PCR or microscopy methodology used. We also observed a small yet significant influence of seasonality, with fewer submicroscopic infections observed in the wet season than the dry season. Integrating these results with estimates of infectivity in relation to parasite density suggests the contribution of submicroscopic infections to transmission across different settings is likely to be highly variable. INTERPRETATION: Significant variation in the prevalence of submicroscopic infection exists even across settings characterised by similar current levels of transmission. These differences in submicroscopic epidemiology potentially warrant different approaches to targeting this infected subgroup across different settings to eliminate malaria. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Royal Society, and the UK Medical Research Council.