Potential impacts of climate change on terrestrial Aotearoa New Zealand's birds reveal high risk for endemic species

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is threatening biodiversity globally with many species facing higher extinction risks. In Aotearoa New Zealand, average temperatures have increased by 1.13 °C since preindustrial times. While threats to many Aotearoa New Zealand bird species from invasive species and habitat destruction and degradation are largely well known, the impacts of climate change on Aotearoa New Zealand's biota and how these interact with existing threats remain largely unclear. To assess predicted future range shifts for terrestrial Aotearoa New Zealand's bird species, species distribution models were performed using Maxent. The results of these models were then integrated into a trait-based vulnerability assessment to create a combined correlative-/trait-based approach accounting for both extrinsic and intrinsic factors of species' vulnerability to climate change. Most assessed species scored moderately to highly vulnerable to climate change. Alpine species, colder-dwelling species on the South Island, species with significantly restricted ranges and already endangered species displayed the highest vulnerability to climate change. Several introduced species were identified to have a very high risk of becoming invasive with future climate change, with range shifts and low vulnerability highlighting the potential to outcompete native species. The climate change vulnerability assessment provides novel insights and fills a knowledge gap regarding potential climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand birds. These results are important for integrating climate change into conservation planning to ensure long-term success of current conservation efforts. • Combined correlative/trait-based CCVA provides novel insights to vulnerability of terrestrial Aotearoa New Zealand birds • Endemic Aotearoa New Zealand birds face high risks of being negatively impacted by climate change • Climate change as a potential enhancer for invasiveness of introduced bird species • A step towards filling the knowledge gaps surrounding climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand birds • High losses of suitable habitat predicted for the majority of assessed native terrestrial Aotearoa New Zealand birds

Topics & Concepts