Trends and predictions of malnutrition and obesity in 204 countries and territories: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Bryan Chong, Jayanth Jayabaskaran, Gwyneth Kong, Yiong Huak Chan, Yip Han Chin, Rachel Goh, Kannan Shankar, Cheng Han Ng, Shaun Loong, Martin Tze Wah Kueh, Chaoxing Lin, Vickram Vijay Anand, Ethan Cheng Zhe Lee, H.S. Jocelyn Chew, Darren Jun Hao Tan, Kai En Chan, Jiong‐Wei Wang, Mark Muthiah, Georgios K. Dimitriadis, Derek J. Hausenloy, Anurag Mehta, Roger Foo, Gregory Y.H. Lip, Mark Y. Chan, Mamas A. Mamas, Carel W. le Roux, Nicholas Chew
Abstract
Background: Malnutrition and obesity are interdependent pathologies along the same spectrum. We examined global trends and projections of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from malnutrition and obesity until 2030. Methods: . Countries were stratified into low, low-middle, middle, high-middle, and high SDI bands. Regression models were constructed to predict DALYs and mortality up to 2030. Association between age-standardised prevalence of the diseases and mortality was also assessed. Findings: In 2019, age-standardised malnutrition-related DALYs was 680 (95% UI: 507-895) per 100,000 population. DALY rates decreased from 2000 to 2019 (-2.86% annually), projected to fall 8.4% from 2020 to 2030. Africa and low SDI countries observed highest malnutrition-related DALYs. Age-standardised obesity-related DALY estimates were 1933 (95% UI: 1277-2640). Obesity-related DALYs rose 0.48% annually from 2000 to 2019, predicted to increase by 39.8% from 2020 to 2030. Highest obesity-related DALYs were in Eastern Mediterranean and middle SDI countries. Interpretation: The ever-increasing obesity burden, on the backdrop of curbing the malnutrition burden, is predicted to rise further. Funding: None.