An estimate of expected economic losses from satellite collisions with orbital debris

Abstract

We estimate the expected annual cost of satellite collisions with orbital debris and find that the expected annual loss for all orbits was $86-103 million in 2020. Nearly all expected losses, $79-102 million, were in LEO , and these losses represent approximately 0.16% of the value of operational satellites in that orbit. Over 70% of losses occurred in the 600-900 km orbital band. Commercial satellites’ share of expected losses is approximately one-third of expected total losses. These findings may have implications for policy, in particular relating to the market for active debris removal.

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