Physics-based simulations of multiple natural hazards for risk-sensitive planning and decision making in expanding urban regions
Luke T. Jenkins, Maggie Creed, Karim Tarbali, Manoranjan Muthusamy, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeremy C. Phillips, C. Scott Watson, Hugh D. Sinclair, Carmine Galasso, John McCloskey
Abstract
Rapid urban expansion in many parts of the world is leading to increased exposure to natural hazards, exacerbated by climate change. The use of physics-based models of natural hazards in risk-informed planning and decision-making frameworks may provide an improved understanding of site-specific hazard scenarios, allowing various decision makers to more accurately consider the consequences of their decisions on risks in future development. We present results of physics-based simulations of flood, earthquake, and debris flow scenarios in a virtual urban testbed. The effect of climate change, in terms of increasing rainfall intensity, is also incorporated into some of the considered hazard scenarios. We use our results to highlight the importance of using physics-based models applied to high-resolution urban plans to provide dynamic hazard information at the building level for different development options. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that including building elevations into digital elevation models is crucial for predicting the routing of hazardous flows through future urban landscapes. We show that simulations of multiple, independent hazards can assist with the identification of developing urban regions that are vulnerable to potential multi-hazard events. This information can direct further modelling to provide decision-makers with insights into potential multi-hazard events. Finally, we reflect on how information derived from physics-based hazard models can be effectively used in risk-sensitive planning and decision-making.