Machine Learning Prediction and Experimental Validation of Antigenic Drift in H3 Influenza A Viruses in Swine
Michael Zeller, Phillip C. Gauger, Zebulun Arendsee, Carine K. Souza, Amy L. Vincent, Tavis K. Anderson
Abstract
Influenza A viruses (IAV) in swine constitute a major economic burden to an important global agricultural sector, impact food security, and are a public health threat. Despite significant improvement in surveillance for IAV in swine over the past 10 years, sequence data have not been integrated into a systematic vaccine strain selection process for predicting antigenic phenotype and identifying determinants of antigenic drift. To overcome this, we developed nonlinear regression models that predict antigenic phenotype from genetic sequence data by training the model on hemagglutination inhibition assay results. We used these models to predict antigenic phenotype for previously uncharacterized IAV, ranked the importance of genetic features for antigenic phenotype, and experimentally validated our predictions. Our model predicted virus antigenic characteristics from genetic sequence data and provides a rapid and accurate method linking genetic sequence data to antigenic characteristics. This approach also provides support for public health by identifying viruses that are antigenically advanced from strains used as pandemic preparedness candidate vaccine viruses.