Neural-XGBoost: A Hybrid Approach for Disaster Prediction and Management Using Machine Learning
Muhammad Asim Saleem, Ashir Javeed, Watit Benjapolakul, Wattanasak Srisiri, Surachai Chaitusaney, Pasu Kaewplung
Abstract
Effective disaster prediction is essential for disaster management and mitigation. This study addresses a multi-classification problem and proposes the Neural-XGBoost disaster prediction model (N-XGB), a hybrid model that combines neural networks (NN) for feature extraction with XGBoost for classification. The NN component extracts high-level features, while XGBoost uses gradient-boosted decision trees for accurate predictions, combining the strengths of deep learning and boosting techniques for improved accuracy. The N-XGB model achieves an accuracy of 94.8% and an average F1 score of 0.95 on a real-world dataset that includes wildfires, floods and earthquakes, significantly outperforming baseline models such as random forest, Support vector machine and logistic regression 85% accuracy. The balanced F1 scores for wildfires 0.96, floods 0.93, and earthquakes 0.96 demonstrate the model’s robustness in multi-class classification. The Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) balances datasets and improves model efficiency and capability. The proposed N-XGB model provides a reliable and accurate solution for predicting disasters and contributes to improving preparedness, resource allocation and risk management strategies.