Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps
Jörn Behrens, Finn Løvholt, Fatemeh Jalayer, Stefano Lorito, Mario A. Salgado‐Gálvez, Mathilde B. Sørensen, Stéphane Abadie, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Andrey Babeyko, Marco Baiguera, Roberto Basili, Stefano Belliazzi, Anita Grezio, Kendra Johnson, Shane Murphy, Raphaël Paris, Irina Rafliana, Raffaele De Risi, Tiziana Rossetto, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Marta Del Zoppo, Alberto Armigliato, Vladimír Bureš, Pavel Čech, Claudia Cecioni, Paul Christodoulides, Gareth Davies, Frédéric Dias, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Mauricio González, Maria Gritsevich, Serge Guillas, C. B. Harbitz, Utku Kânoğlu, Jorge Macı́as, Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos, J. Polet, Fabrizio Romano, Amos Salamon, Antonio Scala, Mislav Stepinac, David R. Tappin, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Thomas Ulrich, Elisa Varini, Manuela Volpe, Eduardo Vyhmeister
Abstract
Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.