Point-of-Care Capillary Blood Ketone Measurements and the Prediction of Future Ketoacidosis Risk in Type 1 Diabetes
Cimon Song, Sharon Dhaliwal, Priya Bapat, Daniel Scarr, Abdulmohsen Bakhsh, Dalton Budhram, Natasha J. Verhoeff, Alanna Weisman, Michael Fralick, Noah Ivers, David Z.I. Cherney, George Tomlinson, Leif E. Lovblom, Doug Mumford, Bruce A. Perkins
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Rather than during illness while diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is developing, we aimed to determine if levels of routine point-of-care capillary blood ketones could predict future DKA. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We examined previously collected data from placebo-assigned participants in an adjunct-to-insulin medication trial program that included measurement of fasted capillary blood ketone levels twice per week in a 2-month baseline period. The outcome was 6- to 12-month trial-adjudicated DKA. RESULTS: DKA events occurred in 12 of 484 participants at a median of 105 (interquartile range 43, 199) days. Maximum ketone levels were higher in patient cases compared with in control patients (0.8 [0.6, 1.2] vs. 0.3 [0.2, 0.7] mmol/L; P = 0.002), with a nonparametric area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.66-0.88). Ketone levels ≥0.8 mmol/L had a sensitivity of 64%, a specificity of 78%, and positive and negative likelihood ratios of 2.9 and 0.5, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This proof of concept that routine capillary ketone surveillance can identify individuals at high risk of future DKA implies a role for future technologies including continuous ketone monitoring.