Evaluating urban climate resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration: A novel method integrating the DPSIR model and Sustainable Development Goals
Ran Yi, Yanan Chen, An Chen
Abstract
The interplay between climate change and socio-economic activities has placed cities at the forefront of climate-related threats. Evaluating and enhancing urban climate resilience are widely regarded as effective strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. This study aims to develop a more logical, comprehensive, and replicable urban climate resilience assessment framework to accurately evaluate and enhance urban climate resilience, thereby supporting urban growth and development in climate change. Specifically, the study focused on the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA), a region with typical climate risks, using the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model to construct an urban climate resilience assessment framework and selecting evaluation indicators based on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including a new index: government climate policy concern. Subsequently, spatial autocorrelation, geographically and temporally weighted regression model, the coupling and coordination degree model, and the super-SBM model were applied. This approach revealed the spatial and temporal evolution trends, driving factors, coupling coordination degree, and construction efficiency of urban climate resilience in the YRDUA from 2013 to 2021. The results show that: (1) Urban climate resilience levels exhibited significant regional disparities, with a mean resilience score of 0.256 and an average annual growth rate of 1.21%. (2) A notable spatial correlation was observed in urban climate resilience, with the radius of the High-High cluster area expanding, while the radius of the Low-Low cluster area contracted. (3) The key factors driving urban climate resilience included water and forest coverage areas, climate policy concern, and investment in municipal public facilities construction. The impact of these factors displayed notable spatial heterogeneity. (4) The coupling coordination degree between resilience subsystems increased by 7.96%, yet remained on the verge of imbalance. Additionally, the average technical efficiency and scale efficiency of urban climate resilience construction rose by 7.43% and 5.44%, respectively, though significant room for improvement remains. Our research advocated for re-examining urban climate resilience through the lens of causality and sustainable development, offering valuable insights for policymakers in China and international initiatives.