Modeling COVID-19 hospital admissions and occupancy in the Netherlands
René Bekker, Michiel A.J. uit het Broek, Ger Koole
Abstract
We describe the models we built for predicting hospital admissions and bed occupancy of COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. These models were used to make short-term decisions about transfers of patients between regions and for long-term policy making. For forecasting admissions we developed a new technique using linear programming. To predict occupancy we fitted residual lengths of stay and used results from queueing theory. Our models increased the accuracy of and trust in the predictions and helped manage the pandemic, minimizing the impact in terms of beds and maximizing remaining capacity for other types of care.
Topics & Concepts
OccupancyCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)PandemicQueueing theoryTerm (time)Computer science2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)ResidualOperations researchEconometricsStatisticsMedicineMathematicsEngineeringAlgorithmDiseasePhysicsPathologyQuantum mechanicsOutbreakInfectious disease (medical specialty)Architectural engineeringVirologyHealthcare Operations and Scheduling OptimizationEmergency and Acute Care StudiesCOVID-19 epidemiological studies