Distributional modelling, megafires and data gaps highlight probable underestimation of climate change risk for two lizards from Australia’s montane rainforests

Abstract

Abstract Species endemic to high elevations are predicted to see declines in their suitable habitat under future global climate change, even in protected or little disturbed areas. However, such risks are often not included in conservation assessments, especially when appropriate models to predict climate change impacts are not available. Here, we use species distribution models to explore the likely impacts of climate change and recent megafires on the status of two high‐elevation cloud forest‐centred lizards from Australia that were listed as Least Concern in a recent (2017) IUCN Red List assessment of Australian reptiles. We found both species ( Harrisoniascincus zia and Silvascincus tryoni ) are predicted to lose all suitable habitat by 2050, under ‘optimistic’ future climate projections. We also found that 52.34–48.5% of H . zia modelled suitable habitat was potentially affected by recent and unprecedented megafires in eastern Australia, while only 0.02–0% of S . tryoni habitat was affected. Our results support upgrading the IUCN Red Listings of H . zia and S . tryoni to vulnerable and endangered, respectively. Our data also highlight an alarming paucity in the number of verified records for these species over the last decade, at precisely the time when these records are becoming critical to testing and validating predictions of declines. The next decade looms as a critical period to establish baseline data sets on the distribution and genetic diversity of these high‐elevation taxa. For reasonably visible and easily identifiable species such as these skinks, citizen science approaches may offer a key path to addressing this challenge.

Topics & Concepts