Shipping trade and geopolitical turmoil
Bárbara Polo Martín, Marc-Antoine Faure, Fabio Cremaschini, César Ducruet
Abstract
Conflicts, whether political, commercial or military, affect transport networks. In the context of large-scale conflicts, operators seek to avoid the most tense areas or reconsider certain routes. Certain links can be disrupted in case of local geopolitical tensions, which can have a significant global impact. The article is devoted to studying Ukraine’s maritime network and identifying changes in these structures because of the armed confrontation that started in 2014. The purpose of the paper is to quantify, model and visualise the main changes in the Ukrainian seaport system and maritime forelands from 2010 until the most recent data available (December 2024). To this end, we propose a threefold strategy based on network models, bilateral trade analyses and route simulation. The results emphasise three (dynamic) processes characterising the Ukrainian seaport system: significant short-term impact, disruption — mostly on distant connections — and resilience of the network through reallocation to other routes and transport modes.