Exploring spatio-temporal heterogeneity of ecosystem service interactions in rapidly urbanizing areas: Trade-offs/synergistic changes and their driving mechanisms
Dengshuai Chen, Xin Li, Ting Li, Jianrong Cao, Chuan-hao Yang, Bingbing Zhang
Abstract
With rapid economic development and urbanization, the natural ecosystems and ecosystem services (ESs) in the Lower Yellow River Region (LYRR) have undergone irreversible destruction, intensifying the conflict between ecological conservation and socioeconomic development. This study utilized multi-source spatial data from 1990 to 2020 and employed the InVEST and RUSLE models to quantify water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil conservation (SC), and food production (FP). Spearman correlation and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were applied to analyze trade-offs and synergies, while random forest and partial least squares structural equation modeling were used to identify driving factors and their pathways. The results revealed significant changes in the spatial pattern of WY, whereas the other three ESs remained relatively stable. Significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity and scale effects were observed in ES interactions, leading to discrepancies between Spearman and GWR. The strongest trade-off between WY and CS, peaking at −0.42*** in 2010. Driving mechanisms showed that LUCC, Pre, DEM, and PET dominated WY; LUCC primarily drove CS; DEM strongly influenced SC; and LUCC, NDVI, and POP majorly affected FP. Over the 30-year period, the direction and intensity of drivers' impacts on ESs varied significantly. For instance, in 1990, Pre (0.734***) exerted the strongest positive effect on WY, while LUCC (−0.934***) had the most significant negative impact on CS. However, their indirect effects through intermediary pathways remained weak. These findings offer a scientific foundation for ecological management and sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing regions.