Analysis of lithium demand for electric vehicles from supply and demand perspectives under China’s carbon peak and neutrality goals
Linchang Zheng, Chen Ge, Bo-Jie Wen, Wenqi Bao
Abstract
Securing lithium supplies and realizing China's carbon peak and neutrality goals necessitates accurately grasping the extent of lithium demand in the transition to automobile electrification. This study investigates trends in lithium demand under different scenarios of EV development in China, considering the scale of electric vehicle (EV) sales and dynamic changes in lithium content per EV unit. The study elucidates the main factors affecting lithium demand of EVs from demand and supply perspectives, revealing three main outcomes: (1) Demand for lithium resources for EVs in China under low-, medium-, and high-demand intensity scenarios is expected to reach 340,000 t-450,000 t in 2035, which is 6-8 times higher than in 2022. (2) The main factor driving rapid growth in lithium demand for EVs is demand-side change, whereby EV demand for lithium resources in 2035 is expected to reach 260,000-350,000 t. (3) The impacts of supply-side change on lithium demand for EVs should not be ignored, whereby EV demand for lithium in 2035 is expected to be close to 11,3000 t. (4) The lithium recovery potential for electric vehicles is increasing rapidly. Under low-, medium-, and high-intensity demand scenarios, the recovered lithium is projected to account for 30 %-31 % of the total lithium demand for electric vehicles by 2035. Supplying lithium for EVs in China will become increasingly vital and challenging in the future.