Analysis of yellow fever prevention strategy from the perspective of mathematical model and cost-effectiveness analysis
B. D. Handari, Dipo Aldila, Bunga Oktaviani Dewi, Hanna Rosuliyana, Sarbaz H. A. Khosnaw
Abstract
We developed a new mathematical model for yellow fever under three types of intervention strategies: vaccination, hospitalization, and fumigation. Additionally, the side effects of the yellow fever vaccine were also considered in our model. To analyze the best intervention strategies, we constructed our model as an optimal control model. The stability of the equilibrium points and basic reproduction number of the model are presented. Our model indicates that when yellow fever becomes endemic or disappears from the population, it depends on the value of the basic reproduction number, whether it larger or smaller than one. Using the Pontryagin maximum principle, we characterized our optimal control problem. From numerical experiments, we show that the optimal levels of each control must be justified, depending on the strategies chosen to optimally control the spread of yellow fever.