Health risk assessment using Monte-Carlo simulations due to arsenic contamination in groundwater in Punjab
Sangeeta Yadav, Sunil Kalkal
Abstract
ABSTRACT Groundwater contamination is a major environmental concern in many regions of India, including several districts of Punjab. In this study, a comparison is carried out between the deterministic and probabilistic approaches for calculating health hazard parameters due to arsenic contamination in groundwater in India. The probabilistic calculations are carried out through Monte-Carlo simulations to quantify the hazard index (HI) and carcinogenic risk. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the contribution of input variables to the HI. From the deterministic and probabilistic approach, an HI greater than one is obtained in adults for all districts except Moga, whereas, for children, the HI is greater than 1 in all districts. This suggests a higher probability of risks, such as developmental problems and cardiovascular disorders. Excess lifetime carcinogenic risk, a measure of carcinogenic risk, is found above the US Environmental Protection Agency's recommended range of 1 × 10−6 to 1 × 10−4 in all districts. These values clearly indicate the long-term carcinogenic danger associated with arsenic exposure since they are far above the tolerable risk threshold of 1 × 10–4. Thus, necessary mitigation measures should be taken, and routine groundwater monitoring should be performed.