Lifetimes of buildings in Japan
Chihiro Kayo, Mario Tonosaki
Abstract
Ascertaining the lifetime distribution of a nation's buildings is critical for estimating their stock/flow. This work is the first study to use the latest data on building stocks and inflows to identify the lifetime function and half-life of all wooden and non-wooden buildings existing in Japan from 1964 to 2020. The log-normal distribution of wooden buildings proved to be the most suitable lifetime function, with a half-life of 38 years in 1964, 56 years between 1965 and 1996, and 63 years between 1997 and 2020. On the contrary, the log-normal distribution resembling exponential distribution was the most suitable for non-wooden buildings, with a half-life of 22 years in 1964, 33 years between 1965 and 1990, and 52 years between 1991 and 2020. It is important that future research uses these lifetime functions to explore future predictions of building stock/flow and implement measures to effectively mitigate environmental impacts such as climate change.