Global assessment of surface ultraviolet radiation and malignant skin melanoma incidence from 1990 to 2021
Fengliu Feng, Yuxia Ma, Yuhan Zhao, Ziyue Wan, Rentao Zhang, Sixu Yang
Abstract
Climate change are altering ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels reaching the Earth's surface. Enhanced UV radiation poses significant risks to human health, notably increasing the risk of skin cancer. Malignant skin melanoma (MM) is the most aggressive skin cancer, accounting for 75% of global skin cancer-related deaths. Over the last five decades, MM incidence has surged dramatically, with over 325,000 new cases reported worldwide in 2020, underscoring the urgent need to understand and address the health impacts of rising UV exposure. This study systematically quantified the risk of UV-induced MM, revealing critical spatial patterns, demographic vulnerabilities, and temporal trends. We used the Global Burden of Disease 2021 and ERA5 data sets to analyze MM incidence trends and UV radiation trends, the relationships between population-weighted UV radiation and MM incidence rates, and vulnerability patterns from 1990 to 2021 in 176 countries and 21 regions. Results revealed UV radiation exhibited a general upward trend globally, with significant regional disparities. North Africa, the Middle East, and Europe had the highest risks of MM, indicating a strong association between rising UV radiation and increased MM incidence in these regions. Among 176 countries, 49 showed significant associations, with the highest risks concentrated in countries such as Cabo Verde, Russia, Libya, Belarus, and Egypt. In Europe, subgroup analysis reveals that UV radiation significantly elevates MM risk across all genders and age groups over 15, with the highest vulnerability observed in males and individuals aged over 85. Our findings emphasize the urgency of targeted public health strategies to mitigate UV-related MM risk, particularly in the most affected regions.